Super Typhoon Dolphin Tracker: Category 5 Storm Turns Toward China, Japan and Korea in Forecast Cone
Last updated: July 31, 2026
Super Typhoon Dolphin has reached Category 5 strength over the northwestern Pacific and is now the fifth Category 5 tropical cyclone on the planet this year. Forecast models bring it toward East Asia through the first week of August, with landfall possibilities that currently stretch from eastern China to Japan and South Korea.
Here is where the storm is, where it is going, and what the spread in the models actually means if you have travel booked in the region.
Where Dolphin is right now
At midday on July 31, the center of Dolphin was near 18.3°N, 161.9°E — more than 4,200 kilometers east of Luzon in the Philippines. That is still deep ocean, far from any landmass.
Maximum sustained winds near the center have exceeded Force 17 on the China Meteorological Administration scale, roughly 220 km/h. That places Dolphin in the highest intensity category used in the region and equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane.
The storm was named by Hong Kong, which is why it carries a marine animal name rather than the flower and place names used by some other contributing countries.
The forecast track, day by day
July 31 to August 2. Dolphin moves mainly west-northwest at about 20 km/h. Intensity is expected to hold above Force 17 through this stretch. It stays over open water.
From August 3. The track is forecast to bend westward and speed up to roughly 25 km/h, aiming at the Fujian and Zhejiang coast of China.
Beyond five days. This is where the models stop agreeing. Possible landfall zones currently range across eastern China, Japan and South Korea. Some runs bring the center near Hangzhou Bay in Zhejiang province.
It will not stay Category 5
This part matters and often gets lost in the headlines. A Category 5 reading today does not mean a Category 5 landfall.
Long-range guidance keeps Dolphin at an intensity equivalent to a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane through much of next week. Once the system moves into the East China Sea, cooler water and stronger wind shear are expected to hold it near that range as it approaches land.
That is still a serious storm. It is not the 220 km/h monster currently sitting over the open Pacific.
Why the five-day cone is so wide
Dolphin is currently undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. During these cycles a new outer eyewall forms and chokes off the inner one. Intensity dips, the wind field broadens, and the storm's forward motion can wobble.
Small differences in where the storm sits after a cycle compound over several days. That is a large part of why one model can end up near Shanghai while another curves the system toward Kyushu or the Korean Strait.
Where to check this yourself
Do not take any single blog's word for a storm, including this one. These are the agencies that actually issue the warnings, and they are the sources the numbers in this article come from.
- Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) — the official authority for Japanese waters, warnings and landfall.
- Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) — Korean track guidance and warnings.
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) — the US centre behind most Category-equivalent figures quoted for western Pacific storms.
- Hong Kong Observatory — clear track maps, and useful because it shows several agencies side by side.
- China National Meteorological Center — the authority for any Chinese landfall.
If those five disagree with each other, that disagreement is the story. It is the same spread this article is describing, and no blog resolves it faster than the agencies do.
What this means if you have travel booked
Flights. Airlines usually do not cancel more than 48 to 72 hours ahead of a storm. If your flight into Shanghai, Fuzhou, Osaka or Busan falls in the August 5 to 8 window, expect the airline to make its call late rather than early.
Waivers. Most carriers publish a travel waiver once warnings go up. That waiver is what lets you change dates without a fee. Watch the airline's advisory page rather than the news.
Ferries and island trips. These stop earlier than flights do. If your plan involves a ferry, treat the closure risk as one to two days earlier than the airport risk.
Do not rebook yet. With a five-day spread this wide, changing your plans today means guessing. The cone will tighten considerably by August 2 or 3.
Where to check for updates
For a storm that may affect several countries, the agencies do not always agree, and each uses its own intensity scale:
- Japan Meteorological Agency — the regional specialized center for the western Pacific
- China Meteorological Administration — uses the Force scale, issues the color-coded warnings used in China
- Korea Meteorological Administration — relevant if the track bends northeast
- Hong Kong Observatory — named this storm and publishes its own track
- Joint Typhoon Warning Center — US military center, uses the Saffir-Simpson categories most English readers recognize
Different numbers from different agencies for the same storm is normal. They measure wind over different averaging periods.
The short version
- Dolphin is a Category 5 super typhoon over open water, well east of the Philippines
- It turns west from August 3, generally toward the Fujian-Zhejiang coast
- Landfall guidance still spans eastern China, Japan and Korea — the cone is wide
- Expected to weaken to Category 1 or 2 before reaching land
- If you are traveling in the region around August 5 to 8, watch airline advisories, and wait until around August 2 before changing anything
This page will be updated as the forecast cone tightens.
More Lao and Thai food
- Typhoon Dolphin Update: Japan on August 7, Then Jiangsu on August 9 — How the Cone Narrowed
- Typhoon Dolphin and Japan: What the Forecast Spread Is Really Telling You
- Five Category 5 Storms Before August: What 2026 Is Doing Differently
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