Typhoon Saudel and Okinawa (Forecast Track, Naha Airport, TCCOR)
Typhoon Saudel, which the Japan Meteorological Agency numbers as the eighteenth typhoon of 2026, is now forecast to pass Okinawa in the middle of this week. It is the first storm this season that has the whole Ryukyu chain inside the forecast track rather than off to one side of it.
This is not a storm that arrives suddenly. It has been crossing open water for the better part of a week, and the useful thing about that is the forecast has had time to settle. Below is what the official numbers say, what usually breaks first on Okinawa, and the one number worth watching if you are on the island.
What the forecast track actually says
As of the 03:00 JST analysis on 22 August, Saudel was near 17.1N 147.7E with a central pressure of 970 hPa and maximum sustained winds of 65 kt. JMA grades it as a strong typhoon. It is moving west-northwest across open ocean with nothing in the way.
The official forecast has it deepening steadily rather than explosively. By 03:00 on 23 August it is put at 20.4N 144.0E and 935 hPa with 90 kt, which is where JMA upgrades the label to very strong. By 24 August it reaches 925 hPa and 95 kt near 23.0N 138.5E, and it is forecast to hold that intensity through 25 August.
The part that matters for Okinawa is the 26 August position: 26.1N 129.4E at 950 hPa with 80 kt. That is essentially on top of the Ryukyu Islands. By 27 August the forecast puts it at 26.2N 126.6E and 960 hPa, which means it is expected to pass the islands and continue west rather than turn north into the Japanese mainland.
Two honest caveats. A five day position carries real error, and a shift of one or two degrees changes whether the eyewall is over the island or a hundred kilometres off it. And the forecast weakening from 925 to 950 hPa on approach does not mean a weak storm arrives; 950 hPa with 80 kt is still a serious typhoon.
Naha Airport is the first thing to break
If you are watching one thing for travel disruption in the Ryukyus, it is Naha. The airport is the hub for essentially every island connection, so when Naha stops, the outer islands stop with it, and the backlog takes longer to clear than the storm takes to pass.
Airlines do not wait for wind at the airport before cancelling. They decide on the forecast, because an aircraft that lands into a closing window becomes an aircraft stuck in the wrong place for two days. That is why cancellations often appear while the sky over Naha is still clear, and why they sometimes stay in place after the storm has moved on.
The practical sequence on Okinawa in a typhoon is fairly consistent. Ferries to the outer islands stop first, because sea state degrades well before the wind reaches the island. Then flights. Then the monorail and buses in Naha suspend service once sustained winds cross their operating limit. Shops and restaurants close ahead of that rather than after it.
TCCOR is the number to watch on Okinawa
Okinawa has something most places do not: a published, numbered countdown that anyone can read. TCCOR stands for Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness, it is run by the US military bases on the island, and it is announced publicly.
The levels count down by how many hours are left before destructive sustained winds of 50 kt are possible. TCCOR 5 means within 96 hours, TCCOR 4 within 72, TCCOR 3 within 48, TCCOR 2 within 24 and TCCOR 1 within 12. Below that the letters take over: 1-C for caution, 1-E for emergency once those winds are actually occurring, and 1-R for recovery while damage is being assessed. All Clear is the end of it.
It is worth watching even if you have nothing to do with the bases, for one reason: it is a decision, not a forecast. A forecast tells you what the atmosphere might do. TCCOR tells you that an organisation with a lot to lose has already decided the timeline is real. When Okinawa goes to TCCOR 2, the island is closing whether or not the sky looks like it yet.
Why very strong is not the same as very large
JMA grades intensity and size on separate scales, and the storm being called very strong this week says nothing about how wide it is. Intensity is about the maximum wind near the centre. Size is about how far out gale force winds reach.
This matters for a chain of small islands more than it does for a continent. A compact, very intense typhoon passing fifty kilometres away can leave one island wrecked and the next one largely untouched. A broad, weaker storm can shut down every airport in the Ryukyus for two days without ever producing a headline wind speed. When you read that a storm has weakened, check whether it also got bigger.
What to do if you have a flight this week
Check the airline directly rather than a travel aggregator, because waivers appear on the airline site first and often do not propagate. If a typhoon waiver is published for your dates, rebooking is usually free within a set window, and that window opens before the cancellations do. Waiting until your flight is actually cancelled is how people end up at the back of the queue.
If you are already on the island, the thing that catches visitors is not the storm itself but the day after. Power and water can be out while the sky is clear, shops stay shut until staff can travel, and the ferry timetable restarts later than the flight timetable. Plan for the recovery day, not just the storm day.
The official Japanese forecasts, including the current position and the five day track, are published in English here: https://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
Warnings and advisories by municipality, which is where you see what is actually in force on Okinawa rather than what is forecast, are here: https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/index.html?lang=en
Satellite imagery on this page is from NASA Worldview and is in the public domain.
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